Every number in our financial model is a model, not a measurement — we said so in the honest review. So the first ask is not a cheque. It is a pilot collaboration: run the platform with real families, instrument everything, and pass two stage gates together. The funding conversation happens after the platform has proven its value — priced on data we produced side by side.
≥60% weekly-active families · ≥1 capsule per family · NPS ≥40 · survey themes triaged and shipped. Miss the gate: we fix and re-run, or we stop — agreed in advance.
≥30% of new families arrive by member invitation · 8-week family retention ≥70% · positive willingness-to-pay signal in survey + at least one organic paid-feature request.
In-app micro-surveys at milestone moments, quarterly NPS, exit interviews for any family that goes quiet, and a shared dashboard — partners see the raw numbers, not a curated summary.
| Stage | Indicative valuation | What it is priced on |
|---|---|---|
| Today — pre-pilot | $2.5–5M | Execution de-risked only: complete platform, self-hosted ML, zero dev payroll. No users — every number is still a model. A raise here would be a SAFE at a $3–5M cap. |
| After Gate 1 · 50 users | $4–7M | Engagement proven: weekly-active families, capsules per family, NPS. Kills the “will anyone use it” question — still too thin to price a round well. |
| After Gate 2 · 100 users | $6–12M pre | Retention ≥70% at 8 weeks, ≥30% of families arriving by invitation, willingness-to-pay signal. Raising ~$1.2–1.5M at $8–10M pre = 13–16% dilution. |
| 18 months — model on track | $15–30M | Tens of thousands of users, revenue switched on, capsule lock-in compounding. Priced as a Series A growth story, not on revenue multiples. |
| 36 months — model on track | $48–79M | 6–10× forward ARR on the model’s $7.94M exit run-rate — consumer subscription + consented ads at 80%+ gross margin, family-level network effects visible. |
The quiet financial argument for the staged ask: the six months of pilot data is what moves the conversation from the $3M band to the $10M band — patience worth several million dollars of founder equity, and a Stage 3 price expectation that is already calibrated before anyone sits down. Bands assume the financial model’s growth curve; the gates exist so nobody has to believe that yet. Australian pre-seed pricing typically runs 20–30% below these (US-anchored) bands — anchor low, let competition move you up.
The stage gates are the deal. If the platform cannot keep 50 users’ families engaged, no funding should follow — and we would rather both of us know that for the cost of a pilot than after a raise.
Pilot infrastructure ~$300 USD/mo (Lean Pilot tier + dev tooling) · founder-operated · gate criteria locked with partners before Stage 1 begins.